The IT Market: Cyclical Downturn or New World Order? 1119
An anonymous reader wrote: "CNN.com is running an interesting story on the heels of a Forrester
Research report concerning the
shift of high tech jobs from the U.S. to places like China, India, and Russia for cheaper labor and got me thinking about the nature
of the current downtrend in programmer demand in the U.S (as opposed to the "morality" of such a shift). While I'm sure the causes for this downtrend are variable, the more important
question in my mind is this -- Is software guru Bruce Eckel correct in
saying that the current downturn represents a temporary blip in the business cycle as jobs are shifted from large and medium companies to smaller companies,
or are Andy Hunt and Dave Thomas correct in recognizing this as
a new reality. Personally I tend to agree with Hunt and Thomas's view (which is not completely opposed to Bruce's opinion, btw) and
I also agree with their viewpoint that protectionist policies like H1B quotas and tariffs won't work to change anything for the better. So what do you think? Is this
just another business cycle or is this a New World Order in IT?"
The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Interesting)
This is not "the sound of inevitability", it's the sound of years of government/corporate policy to make the world our cheap labor playground. It can be reversed with rational policies that foster local investment at the expense of unchecked corporate profits. What happens when you have corporations that are invested in a locality? They don't ship the jobs overseas just to save a buck.
Read "The Economics of Empire" in the May Harper's. Excellent piece.
It happened to textile workers long ago. It's happening to us now.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:4, Funny)
Oh really? So when did corporations start outsourcing their outrageously-paid executives to India?
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Funny)
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Interesting)
All joking aside, you can bet that's what's going to come next. After all, the almighty shareholders, who upper management have sworn to please at all costs, will have seen the next quarter projection increases possible due to outsourcing. Employee salaries have always been a big number on the budget sheet, and the first target when times get tough. After outsourcing, the biggest numbers left on the budget sheets are going to be the people needed to manage... People who are no longer there.
And guess what? Times are going to be tough because they've stopped paying people enough to buy their products. Ooops.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:4, Insightful)
Not only that, but when they are well enough off (thanks to all this foreign investment) to spend the equivalent of $600 on a word processor, you can bet that they're not going to buy Word. They're going to buy something from a domestic startup (probably owned by an old co-worker or manager) that does what they need, not what some American design expert thought was useful.
Of course, that's assuming that "globalization" doesn't keep outsourcing jobs to low-cost areas, reducing the entire planet to a giant slum.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:4, Insightful)
hey, thats not true -- their wont be a giant slum -- I'll bet Africa could grow into a lovely fortress for the rich... Just that the middle class, which formerly acted as a barrier between the haves and have-nots will be sufficiently squeezed to start to identify with the have-nots... THEN things start to get interesting.
See the American Revolution, French Revolution, Russian Revolution, Cuban Revolution, %your-favorite-monarch/ruling-class-disposed-by-t
*OR* the planet can start to get serious about the business of fair and equitable society. Equal Opportunity for all. Help for those who need it. Peace. Prosperity for all -- not just a few rich SOB CEOs who will run away with a bag-o-cash in a heartbeat, these people are 'world-citizens', they are rich, they can pick up and scoot off to where-ever the hell's not burning... and their newly minted middle class will be happy for the prosperity that trickles down -- and will send their civilized sons and daughters to fight our evil great-grandchildren
heh (Score:4, Insightful)
You mean, as opposed to the current situation where the place where you live is nice, but all the rest of it is an even worse slum? There is absolutely no moral principle for which you could claim that that's a good thing. Yes, the world will all be a "slum" if you consider $9/hr for coding 'impoverished'. but on average most people will be better off then they were before.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Insightful)
But to lead a company takes a skillset that is fairly abstract in the making.
From the point of view of the employees, they see a bunch of guys in suits wandering around, making what seem like bad decisions, and worse yet, lyaing people off for the good of the company value.
They seem fairly worthless, and out of my own (limited) experience, it really does seem that a lot of them are just bloat - but that is more middle management IMO.
In terms of the top people, there is a cultrual background that is at play that will likely keep American/European people at the tops of American/European companies, and Asian people at the tops of theirs.
I'm sure 80 people will respond with singular references to an anomoly - but for the most part, you can't outsource your leading braintrust and be successful, if due to nothing else but cultrural issues.
Whereas programming is a means to an end. The people at the top want something does XYZ, and whether it is an American, and Indian, or a smart robot on the moon, the end result is going to be something that does XYZ.
Logic, Math, manpower, etc - all basic skills can be outsourced - but the executives at the top do more than that and are much harder to outsource.
That is a very unpopular opinion here on slashdot, so I suppose this will get modded way down. The fact that it might have truth to it... well, overlook it if you must.
In other words (Score:3, Insightful)
"The good ole' boys network will keep the fat cats from suffering the same fate as the rest of us"
Thats my take on it anyways. And I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I don't have to like it either.
Re:In other words (Score:5, Funny)
Candians? Are those natives of Candyland©?
reality strikes (Score:5, Informative)
Solution? Use an Indian company to do the job! C++ IS C++, after all. Within a year, they were back at square one. I have another friend that is interviewing and testing Indian developers for a proposed India-based development lab. Result? Very few were able to answer half the questions correctly (mid-level Java developer-type questions).
So, quality does kick in at some point. India is NOT the IT panacea some have hoped for. I still think we'll see some more outsourcing, but it isn't the end of IT as we know it. Not every company can do this kind of thing.
On the executive point, yes and no. There are a LOT of execs who are part of the good-ol-boy system. Those who are good, do a great deal more. But the squids...
Anywho, my opinion...
Re:reality strikes (Score:5, Insightful)
I worked at a job where I had many coworkers that were Indian, and we outsourced a lot of our stuff to our Indian office.
The code from those guys SUCKED.
I too figured, hell, them fellas must all be retarded.
But no, then I went and worked at a different company and worked with some of the brightest people I know - they were from India as well.
It turns out, just like the States - people can be total idiots, and people can be really bright.
If anyone is going to present a good arguement here - it should be that India has suffered a serious brain drain throughout the economic boom here in the states. Their best and brightest have come over here on the H1B, leaving behind the ones that would like to also become IT and cash in on that field.
That argument makes a bit more sense than "they are different than me, therefore, they must be retarded"
Outsourcing outrageously-paid executives (Score:5, Insightful)
Along the same lines, now that most of the dot-com era is over, it would be possible to see if there was an inverse correlation between the numebr of MBAs at a firm and its survival.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:3, Interesting)
The thing is, this has happened before and will happen again. At first, asian companies didnt have the sophisticated state of the art machinery to produce large quantities of cheap shoes. B
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Interesting)
The other side of the issue, of course, is the effect overseas. What has happened in China over the last 20 years, for example, is astounding in terms of the numbers of people lifted out of abject poverty. They are entering the global marketplace and building themselves into an economic powerhouse.
What we're seeing is change, which one can either fear or take advantage of. It's your choice.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Funny)
Who knows, when they think keeping production there isnt generating enough profit, they might even outsorce it to some african country...
But just because there are upsides does not mean that there are no downsides!
Cheaply produced chicken for instance, pumped with water to increase weight, moved half way across the globe packed with conservatives is one downside for instance. Just because it is cheaper does not always mean that it is better. Competing in screwing each other over is one competition id rather pass.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Funny)
Wow, as a conservative myself (economically speaking), I have to agree that being packed into a chicken would definitely be a downside to anything. Although having water pumped in would be nice, I mean, if I have to be packed into a chicken, at least it should have running water available, right?
Best laugh all day (Score:5, Funny)
> with water to increase weight, moved half way
> across the globe packed *with conservatives* is
> one downside for instance.
(emphasis added)
You know, I'd really have to weigh the benefits of that one. I'm opposed to commercial mass-farming of animals, but if they were stuffed with the likes of Bill O'Reilly and Michael Savage...mmm...
(I think you meant preservatives, but I can dream)
Re:The Economics of Empire - exactly right (Score:5, Interesting)
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/5918 824.htm
Foreign engineers will change our economic world; prepare yourself
By Sanford Forte
WE'RE hearing a lot these days about economic distress. What we're not hearing enough about are global economic and business changes that hit our manufacturing, technology and financial sectors -- and lead to job displacement. These changes will not abate; if anything, they will accelerate.
It's more complex than just ``globalization.'' It's a series of technology and capital transfers that have fundamentally changed our industrial and technological playing field. The rest of the world is close to fielding robust post-industrial infrastructure, and learning to outplay the best of us.
The National Science Foundation reports that China graduated nearly 200,000 engineers in 1999 from good universities that get better by the year. By comparison, American Universities graduate a mere 60,000 undergraduate engineers annually.
Combined, India and China produced nearly 26 percent of the world's newly minted engineers in 1999. Excluding Japan (where engineering wages are higher), Asian economies graduated 320,000 engineers in 1999 alone.
Wages for Chinese engineers range from roughly $4 to $8 per hour. Engineers from many other Asian nations (excepting Japan) command little more than that. These well-trained engineers are all perfectly capable of working ``on the wire'' for engineering firms all over the world -- and they are doing just that.
China has some 18 million people migrating from the interior to the coastal manufacturing provinces every year. This represents a virtually limitless source of low-cost labor for the next 10 or 20 years. It will feed China's surging consumer demand. Don't believe for a minute that China's (or the Pacific Rim's) economic development will be mostly fueled by American-made products and technology. It won't.
China is already the largest manufacturer of consumer electronics products in the world, and within three years will be the world's largest automotive manufacturer.
Manufacturing is migrating from Pacific Rim economies (Malaysia, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India) to China, leaving large workforces and technology infrastructures behind. Those displaced workers are migrating to the technology service sector, and already posing a competitive threat to high-tech service sectors in the developed West.
India already has Six Sigma (a universal measure of quality that strives for near perfection) technology and consulting firms equal to our very best, offering superb technology solutions at cut-rate prices.
Roughly 47 percent of Americans are directly or indirectly dependent on technology for their livelihood; keep this number in mind when considering how the ``Law of Lowest Wages and Costs'' has already -- and will increasingly -- impact our economy and lifestyle.
Bottom line: We in Silicon Valley -- and America -- are in for a long, somewhat painful ride. We will be challenged like never before. Americans will, after a time of readjustment and pain, finally have to ask what ``enough'' is . . . and that's a good thing.
It's a good thing because the seemingly never-ending upward spiral of promised prosperity that Americans have recently taken as their birthright has come at real cost: disintegration of families, environmental degradation, unhealthy xenophobia borne of the fear of ``losing advantages'' that we so dearly enjoy.
After the looming crisis fully takes hold, after the scapegoating of politicians, foreign nations and immigrants has run its course, Americans will search inward for values and ways of life that don't depend on maintaining material hegemony that is in excess of ``enough.''
We can be prosperous without obsessing about prosperity, that is, sacrificing our very lives and identities to some abstract definition of ``success.'' I predict a resurgence of interest in things spiritual, a more relaxed defi
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:3, Funny)
In the New World Order, the only jobs left will be retail clerks, politicians and plumbers; systems analysts are plumbers.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:3, Interesting)
You are dead wrong about System Analyst. The demand for every aspect of I.T. is considerbly down from what it was three years ago in the U.S.A.
You also fail to mention that people in the U.S. pay taxes on their income, little to no tax is accumulated for work done overseas. A solution to this problem would be a "temporary" tax of say 500% on all code developed over
One problem with this... (Score:4, Insightful)
Sure we can try to move up the food chain, but the nature of this is that there are inherently less jobs the further you move up the chain.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Insightful)
What we're seeing is change, which one can either fear or take advantage of. It's your choice.
Well put!
It seems strange that a communty like /., who almost to a man supports concept of the freedom of information (as expressed by OSS, FSF, etc.) can be so reactionary when it comes to dark skinned people from places other than US, Canada, and Europe getting jobs using the skills related to that information.
In the long run, globalization leads to open interdependant economies. Those economies lead to more wealth for all, as well as a more stable peace.
I offer as evidence the most recent rounds of serious saber rattling between India and Pakistan. It has been widely reported that it was the leaders of India's growing high tech sector that pressured the Indian government to step back from the brink of war. That pressure came because they felt that war would damage their ability to get new contracts with western businesses.
As another example, China's growing economic contacts with the US, Japan, etc. have a stabilizing effect on the Taiwan situation. China's entrepreneurs would find the disruption of trade too great a blow to stomach a forced re-unification.
It is also instructive to observe the actual progression of globalization. First, unskilled jobs like simple textile work move overseas. After a while, the standard of living in that place improves and so those un-skilled jobs move to somewhere else and semi-skilled jobs like auto assembly take their place. Then those jobs move on and highly skilled jobs - chip fabrication for one - move in. At the same time the standards of living keep improving. In 30 or 40 years people in a once third world country are living comparably to those in the first world. Many of the factories along the Mexico/Texas border provide their workers with a middle class lifestyle. Those Mexicans, in turn, have the wealth to purchase goods and services from the US, re-employing the people whose jobs were lost when the factory moved to Mexico.
While there will be many bumps in the road, globalization will be a long term net positive for every nation. Nations go to war when their leaders have less to lose by war than by peace. Globalized economies have a great deal to lose, while isolated economies have little at stake. World peace will come when men of every nation have the opportunity to better themselves through commerce, rather than violence.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Insightful)
The idea of protecting employees in the US is just as selfish to me as the RIAA monopolizing the music industry and charging unreasonable prices. In my opinion, the government cannot look at this at a micro level, but rather must account for the public good. The industry, the end consumer, and the global economy as a whole benefits from products that can be made as cheap as possible. I have little to no sympathy for the IT employees laid off, they must adapt to survive the changes, as we cannot continually look at these issues on a microeconomic scale.
Comment removed (Score:4, Insightful)
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:3, Insightful)
The USA supports freedom, and should not be doing business with anti-democratic nations like that. Nations that abuse their people, or the world in general,
Your Right but I disagree (Score:5, Insightful)
In many sences your correct but I disagree. In many third world coutries the cost of living is a fraction of that of the US. Here we have $30,000 cars, we pay $1,800 a month for rent. In the Sudan
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Interesting)
I went to China last year. While no self-respecting libertarian would say that the country is Free, getting a personal tour from my girlfriend of her romping grounds and the like were eye-opening.
The days when China would kill citizens who step out of line are drawing to a close. A big reason for this is... well, whaddaya know, globalization. China wants the money and success of the West, but they have to make concessions on the Human Rights issue to gain the right treaties. And then, when the jobs and money do start flowing in, China cannot prevent the ideas from also flowing in and having an impact.
Cell phones and the internet -- the same technologies that empower individuals here -- are empowering ordinary Chinese citizens over there. SMS messaging reported the spread of SARS far more quickly than the PRC gov't wanted -- even more quickly than was reasonable, since it led to a worldwide panic!
And it's not just about technology. The money people have allow them to stop worrying about getting fed, and as they gain comfort and possessions, they gain more and more to lose from the government just taking from those according to their abilities and distributing to those according to their needs. Or simply taking people's lives. Funny, that a lack of anything to lose would encourage someone to suicide bomb, but that a great many things to lose leads someone to want to fight -- and win.
As for the main topic of the thread, I think the fear of jobs moving overseas is mostly hype; even if it is, we will adapt, re-educate ourselves, and take new jobs. And we will still write code! We'll just have a lot more open-source contributors that way.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Insightful)
Come again? (Score:4, Insightful)
The two countries you name, China and Indonesia, have indeed lots of human right issues. The jobs offered by Western companies make this situation better, by creating a new technological middle class capable of seeing the benefits of free information flow and educated enough to fight for it.
I won't even try to take away your dreams as in "The USA supports freedom", but try finding out why China is one of US largest commercial partners and also which foreign countries support the Indonisian regime.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Insightful)
At first glance, protectionism seems "old school" and unrestricted free trade looks like the logical way to keep a free-trade economy growing. This would be true if all countries were on a level playing field and the entire world was the market place. The reality is that the U.S. consumer is the one doing most of the purchasing from U.S. companies and if you ship U.S. jobs overseas and drive wages down then the very person you're trying to sell to won't be able to afford your product.
The end result will be a decreased standard of living for all but the richest Americans because once you start outsourcing whitecollar work to other countries, you lower the wage-base for the majority of Americans. This creates a nice big insurmountable gap between rich and poor, and great dichotomies of wealth are the stuff of revolutions.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Insightful)
I'm not afraid to compete at my level with the best Indian or Chinese worker. On a basis of taking cost of living into account. If I could live as cheaply where my family is, as Apu does in Pune, then I'd happily compete with him. But Apu does not pay taxes to pave their roads, provide safe drinking water, inspect food, or even defend their country at the same level I do. Apu does not have regulations protecting him. All of these things contribute to a lower cost. Then, the point of competition isn't about skill or work ethic or productivity or time-efficiency. It's all about cost. Human beings can be thought of as commodities, to your average bean-counter. But they are not commodities.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Insightful)
It's the concept of a competitive advantage. It's time that workers in IT (and I am one) recognize that workers in China and India have a fairly pronounced competitive advantage over the workers herein the United States. We're expensive, difficult to manage, and only slightly better programmers than those in other countries (as a whole). You can legislate this all you want, the fact remains however that you burying our heads in our the sand won't make the problem go away. We must find a way to compete as a workforce.. or turn to another economic system. Tariffs and taxes on foreign goods do nothing but destroy OUR wealth.. after all we only make up ~5% of the worlds population.
It's a tough pill to swallow, and our auto workers and manufacturers have had to swallow it in the past. What's insanely funny to me is that Americans in general have this view that in order for our economy to be strong, everyone elses must be weak. You don't have to watch CNN long to hear "We can't have free trade, that will make the Chinese economy stronger!!" Yes, this is the result. Basically the economies in India, China, etc.. are so weak that the cost of living is almost neglible. So a programmer in India doesn't have to make a whole lot to be comfortable by the standards of his society. $5,000 goes a long ways in those countries.
At the end of the day, protectionism doesn't help us.. it doesn't fix any problems. It simply plugs a small hole in the damn and HURTS the overall American economy in a major way. Sure it may keep you in a job for 6 months or a year.. but the fundemental problem remains. We simply can't compete with our foreign counterparts at the salaries we expect.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:3, Insightful)
Well, let me ask you this. How many of us are replaceable in the sense that I could take the day off, and someone else could just walk in and carry on where I left off?
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:3, Insightful)
There are a lot of new products coming out of India, some of which are quite innovative. Much of the software in the emerging verticals, such as the handheld space, comes from places like Russia, China, Isreal, and India. These efforts clearly show the ability to be free thinkers.
I've had the p
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:3, Insightful)
What needs to happen is a tax on ALL code done outside the country.
I could somewhat buy your argument if most of the CXO's around here didn't make decisions soly based
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Insightful)
Lets say that Japan has a competitive advantage in auto manufacturing. They can make BETTER cars, cheaper.
The goal of tariffs is to raise the price of a Japanese car to the level of one made in the U.S., the idea being that it negates the Japanese competitive advantage in car manufacturing.
So lets examine two consumers, one in the U.S. and one in Japan. For the purposes of this discussion we'll say they both make the same salary of $50,000 after tax dollars.
The consumer in Japan can buy a high quality car for $18,000. The car is a very good car, just as good (if not better) than it's American counterpart. This is because the Japanese are very good at making cars. Since the consumer pays cash, he has $32,000 left to spend after buying the car.
The consumer in the U.S. can buy a similiar car
In overall economic terms the Japenese consumer is now wealthier than the American consumer.. he received the same value in his car purchase, and has an additional $4000 to reinvest in the rest of the economy.
Sure the American buyer may have bought an American car.. but instead of growing the economy by $32,000 he can only contribute $28,000 because he is now less wealthy than his Japanese counterpart.
This is the idea behind globalism in general. By letting the most efficient people build the products, it creates wealth for everyone as they can spend less and get more. They can then grow the economy buy reinvesting that wealth in it. This is the same idea as a tax cut for economic stimulus, but with the bonus of not lowering the spending power of the government.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Insightful)
The thing that made the US a center for IT was the innovation. When that innovation became comoditized (in terms of current IT), the jobs went where business placed priorities. i.e. money. There is very little loyalty these days in business and it could be argued that perhaps there should not be from a true business perspective (however abhorrent that is). The trick for IT (if IT workers want to maintain their status) is to continue innovating.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:5, Interesting)
Well, think about textile workers for a second - what are the characteristics of their job - medium capital investment for the plant, light skill set for the workers, culturally independent job description (a worker from africa works a loom the same way one from america does).
What does that have to do with high-tech? You need to compare apples to apples. The high-tech jobs that can be easily commotified, which have a clear project scope and easily definable deliverables will be outsourced to the cheapest places. But if you have a company, say, in Germany, and you need someone to come in, understand your business and design some peice of technology to help you integrate better into your customers supply chain, a) wtf does that have to do with textile production and b) how are you going to outsource that to anyone other than a german with knowledge of your industry?
There are many places in IT where someone from a distant country might try compete with local talent, but they'll get their butts kicked every time because business sees an advantage to hiring more expensive, local, knowledgeable workers. Who wants to trust their business to someone they've never met, 3,000 miles away, who barely shares their language?
Outsourcing will effect programmers and other IT workers but there is a huge part of IT that at least partially relies on interpersonal factors that simply can not be packaged and sent to India for processing. It might be a good idea to make sure your skill set fits in the latter category now, because I do think it's going to get worse...
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:4, Insightful)
There are many places in IT where someone from a distant country might try compete with local talent, but they'll get their butts kicked every time because business sees an advantage to hiring more expensive, local, knowledgeable workers.
But if everyone hires out to a distant country, its not an issue. Anyone who doesn't outsource will be facing a larger short-term investment, and will be crushed before they can reap the advantages of those local, knowledgeable, and expensive workers. They'll be crushed in the stock market too, because the other companies will have better next-quarter financials, and everyone knows that's all that matters.Who wants to trust their business to someone they've never met, 3,000 miles away, who barely shares their language?
And the answer is... Management! Sure, he's 3,000 miles away, but he's their kind of people - the sort that manages people and cash flow, and doesn't think too hard (or really care) about what exactly his company's making. He owns people that take care of all that confusing tech stuff for a miniscule sum. And to top it off, they don't actually have to get too close to any techies - who are not their kind of people, and think about things like "justice" and "rights" far too much for their own good.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:4, Funny)
$35,000.00 to $60,000.00 is the realistic range of salary for the It field. managers who understnad and manage large groups get more because they are management, etc...
It's our own fault that it is this way. The market is flooded with crap-abilities with paper certs wanting high 5 figures or low 6's and HR departments are tired of filtering through the idiots who think they know, the wannabe's who were suckered by the last round of MCSE infomercials promising better wages and a great career. Those of us who have been here before, sat at their job making the supposed paltry $45,000.00 a year are STILL sitting here at our jobs listening to the out of work whine because they can't afford their BMW payment and might have to sell their Porche or sell the 4000 sq foot house with a pool in the valley.
Boo Fricking Hoo. Until IT people get realistic, figure out a way to get rid of the worthless that are masquerading as skilled behind pieces of meaningless paper and prove to the employers that we are actually not just money whores who will chase after whoever has the biggest pile of money... it wont get any better for you. you will never get that 6 figure programming job ever again, because you are not worth it.. You think you are?? then start your own damn company.
The reality is that companies are afraid of IT because of the crap we pulled in 1996-2000.
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:3, Insightful)
How about instead reading some mainstream books on basic ecomomy as understood by our foremost economists and as taught by universities all over the world.
Then you would learn the extreme benefits that trade have brought to everyone. You would learn how the nations that have pursued trade are prosperous, and those who have not impoverished.
can be reversed with rational policies that foster local investment at the expense of unchec
Re:The Economics of Empire (Score:3, Insightful)
Going from programming to routing wires around an office is a move up?
I myself have given a lot of thought to taking university courses in database administration -- this story was just abou
Re:Gee (Score:5, Insightful)
Yeah, we do what we do because it benefits us. The same as every other country, only we get flack for doing the same things everyone else does.
You think I could get a job in India? Hell, do you think I could even get a work visa?
If you think the trade barriers in the US are anything compared to those of say, Japan, you're delusional. But we're expected to be selfless.
You think we spread "venom" over the world? Look how other world powers have acted over the centuries--what we do is pretty damn tame.
fire up the plant.... (Score:3, Funny)
Something is cyclical... (Score:3, Funny)
I'm going to say Dave Thomas is right (Score:4, Funny)
"That's Dave's Way.."
new world order ish (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:new world order ish (Score:4, Interesting)
The lowest common denominator applies to other fields as well. Take Dell's foray into technical support - they are ramping some of their call volume into the Phillipines (I believe) and the quality is horse shit. I spent over an hour on the phone trying to get a freaking standard service call in that would have taken IBM or Compaq less than 5 minutes.
After I brought this to management's attention, we've subsequently dumped Dell for another vendor. Hopefully, *someone* will keep smart people on the other end of the horn and end up with good business.
If you don't believe me, call 800-822-8965 option 3 and you'll get a foreign guy trained to speak with a western accent. They all sound nearly the same (with the same static-laden, high-compression VoIP connection noise in the background)...
Time to start learning Hindi (Score:5, Interesting)
It will certainly take some getting used to, and not everyone will compete, but I think that the average white collar American is finally learning what globalization means. Highly skilled folks in the rest of the world have been dealing with this for years -- they all learned English to compete. Now it's our turn.
Re:Time to start learning Hindi (Score:5, Funny)
You mean, we have to learn English?
But...but...that means spell-checking our posts...and using punctuation correctly...and, my God, grammar?!?
The horror, the horror.
Re:Time to start learning Hindi (Score:4, Insightful)
Oh, wait, someone did. And decided that it's more important to not call a child a failure than to teach them how to read and write correctly.
I mean, what the fuck is up with the whole apostrophe saga? It's not like they're difficult to use. Don't get me started on their/there/they're either.
If accepting mediocrity is the price of retaining a child's self esteem, then fuck their self esteem and shred it GOOD!
A temporary thing (Score:5, Insightful)
Market adjustment (Score:5, Informative)
Globalization is the great leveler (assuming free markets). It takes time, but eventually, everyone gets paid what they're actually worth as opposed to what they think they're worth.
The secret is to make yourself worth more. Probably a meaningless admonition to most slashdotters who think that the world owes them a living so they can spend all their time downloading files from Kazaa.
Re:Market adjustment (Score:3, Insightful)
The cost of living in these countries (India, China) is ridiculously low compared to the Western World. They can therefore live off a lot less $, and therefore ask less for every contract.
It has nothing to do with skills... pure economics.
And unfortunately, there's nothing we can do about that, except move on to the next big hi-tech domain (since the core of R&D will undoubtedly stay here in the US).
Re:Market adjustment (Score:5, Insightful)
Also, making yourself worth more doesn't mean you're going to get a job. To make yourself worth more, and be able to prove it, you need additional degrees/certifications, which cost money. If you don't have the money for them, despite being as talented as the next guy who DOES have them, the job market will be a cold cold place to you.
However, Americans *will* have to accept lower salaries for the same jobs as before (already happening to huge extents), and this will shave off the outliers who were making salaries that were simply absurd. Unfortunately this shaving process too often takes off the top of the entire Bell Curve (too often in layoffs, those making the decision on who stays and who goes don't pay that much attention to who was worth their salt), and so more people who were making the correct value of their job will be fired than those who are fired because they make too much.
Once laid off (no matter how appropriately or not), it's extremely difficult to make your resume stand out from the resume of a pseudo programmer who knows enough about technology to banter jargon around, and fill their resume with acronyms because they heard them in an advertisement once. In order to make a competetive resume, one must either be over qualified, or a liar, because you're competing against other liars. And thus you end up having to take a job that is worth less than YOU are, and doesn't take advantage of all of your skills, nor help you to advance your own skills by pushing you at all. Thus you as an employee stagnate unless you have the time or drive to push yourself ahead on your own spare time. In that stagnation process (if you fall victim to it), you become worth less compared to those around you.
In the end I believe it will come around again full circle. What's going on in India, etc, is analogous to what happened in the U.S. in the 90's. An economy can only grow so fast in a healthy fashion. There's a lot of excess money from the 90's boom and subsequent crunch, which is looking for a new home which promises similar returns to the 90's boom. This money will flood economies that are not ready for it, these economies will artificially inflate, just like the U.S. one did, and eventually they're destined for collapse, just like the U.S. economy. This collapse will happen as a result of the U.S. companies having realized that "cheaper" doesn't mean "better," when they see that the quality of their product is reduced (if nothing else, through communication and time zone issues, let alone the "pseudo programmer" phenomenon from the U.S. 90's), and withdraw their money for the now not-significantly-more-expensive American worker alternative.
The next 10 years looks *very* bad for the U.S. IT industry, this is a pendulum, and it is still on its downward swing, away from the U.S. Things are going to get worse from here folks. Be *willing* to take a pay cut if it saves your job. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and thus a $40,000 job is worth an $80,000 job which you were laid off from. Certainly don't expect a raise any time soon.
I am very cynical about this. (Score:5, Interesting)
I think this outsourcing trend is the new face of technology in this country. We all have to adapt. We are not going to be able to change the system, because the system is run by the corporations that employ, which have the politicians in their pockets. Take a look at how systematically, the clothing industry, the manufacturing industry, the auto industry has all moved their jobs overseas, to asia, mexico, wherever. At each point, people who lost their jobs in the US made a stink, but nothing was done. I hate to say it but I don't see it any different today, even though our programming jobs are supposedly "white collar" ... BFD.
I think we are just going to have to get used to it. We are either going to have to learn to get by on way lower salaries, or get into another career. Technology just isn't the type of job that's going to last for a whole lifetime. I'm already planning an exit strategy.
remember back in the day of 1999 ... when people said the tech boom was going to change everything? Introduce a whole new way of doing business? Well, that promise is being fullfilled. It wasn't exactly the positive change we were hoping for. But one lesson should be kept from those days. Remember ... be adaptable? Get used to change? If you don't change from your old business ways you'll die? All those messages were being yelled at the management, when it should have been yelled at us netslaves, the ones who supposedly "get it". What we need to get is, be adaptable. Tech is simply too volatile to base your whole life's career on. And those who don't adapt and change, will die a slow, horrible death.
Re:I am very cynical about this. (Score:5, Insightful)
Tech is simply too volatile to base your whole life's career on. And those who don't adapt and change, will die a slow, horrible death.
People should focus on being able to do something that produces value for a company or society. Learn to make something. Software as a product has a value that is rapidly speeding towards zero. Other sectors, like the embedded market, industrial controls, specialized welding, manufacturing automation and more all have jobs available, but require more learning and experience than your average network installation does. These are also jobs that by their nature cannot be outsourced.
I think IT as it was is going to die hard. The future is in finding new applications of technology to improve the bottom line.
This isn't the end of the world. Everyone needs to eat, and the economy has a way of providing for that. If the economy crashes to the point where there are no jobs, then there's no market for those foriegn produced goods, is there?
Re:I am very cynical about this. (Score:3, Insightful)
I'm kinda pissed about this, but maybe some of us should have had more management aspirations. I know a lot of programmers are totally anti-management positions for themselves, but I think this comes back to bite you in the ass ... for example if you're a 40 year old coder with no management experience, out of work, looking for a job, competing with others charging half what you are asking ... etc.
Secondly, there are plenty of jobs that require you to be onsite other than management and "service" type job
It's happened to manufacturing... (Score:4, Insightful)
The grunt jobs will be shipped off to the cheapest place, whereas there will always be a place for higher-end jobs. The goal posts will constantly be moving though.
Oh .. programmers .. I see .. (Score:3, Interesting)
I hate this statement. Just what exactly do you consider a "programmer"? Is a MSCE a "programmer".
I look all around me and I see MSCE, 6 week crash course community college trained Java programmers, and guys who think they should be administrating 100 UNIX boxes because they were successful at installing Linux on the fourth try all over the place pissing and moaning on how bad things are.
On the other side of the spectrum I see C/C++ programmers and DBA's with job offers all over the place.
Until "programming" is a certified profession, such as engineers, doctors, even accountants, you can make the numbers do whatever you wish.
In the 90's businesses were pretty stupid. They thought that since you knew things around computers that they need you. Today, they are a little smarter and will ask more indepth questions, and ask to see that $50K+ piece of paper.
Re:Oh .. programmers .. I see .. (Score:5, Insightful)
Asian deflation in many markets (Score:4, Interesting)
Add to this the low barriers to commerce as a result of WTO membership and extensive fiber networks and the result is that we are about to enter a period of hypercompetition that will result in massive profit deflations for many American firms. Consider that the big three automakers are now demanding that their suppliers match the price for potential parts that could be produced at Chinese wages. They are essentially telling suppliers in advance to beat the potential Chinese price or the Chinese price will become a reality.
The end result of this will be the continued growth of Asian economies as China will most likely continue to surpass the US for foreign investment as it did for the first time in 2002.
Maybe in biotech and entertainment the US will keep a lead, but everything else is up for grabs and the lowest price will win.
I think it's a sad reality (Score:4, Interesting)
Overseas Outsourcing (Score:3, Interesting)
Just my $.02US (which probably isn't worth much right now, but wait for deflation to hit and watch out)
I saw this a decade ago (Score:3, Interesting)
They realised a few things quickly - and that was that you spent more time and money writing specs, that turned out to make the projects far less flexible. Also, because of cultural differences, for example, when finding a major bug after the project goes gold, some cultures have a "duck the head, don't say anything" mentality, which resulted, in one occasion of note, in a very expensive recall of MANY CDs that had been pressed and sent to customers.
The biggest reason for cost overrun in IT is NOT the salary of the engineer in question, but boneheaded decisions made at levels higher - yes, it may look good in the short term to hire cheaper people, but that doesn't necessarily translate into cheaper projects. Especially when you take the 3am long distance bills into consideration.
I believe Canada swung back after these experiments because it was costing them more than they anticipated, with too much attendant risk. (Company goes out of business? Sells the code on the open market?)
Of course, they wouldn't let us telecommute because they needed us RIGHT THEN AND THERE IN THE OFFICE FOR EMERGENCY MEETINGS, etc. But outsourcing the work halfway across the planet? A mere logistical hurdle to be hurdled.
Big corporate company (Score:3, Interesting)
In the past development of new products was always developed here with local people and then once a product became "steady state" or in a maintaince mode it was then sent off shore to have them maintian any code or product.
This new development of working with offshore sites to develop new products has been a bit of a hastle. The business loves it because it appears to save money immediately being cheaper per line of code or per hour, BUT there are huge gaps when trying to deploy or release this product into production.
One of the major problems is offshore people can hardly speak english. We've found ourselves needing to rely on local foreigners to either translate or attempt to speak better english. This makes implimentation time and working with the system administrators a much more drawn out process.
I'd say it's both - and neither (Score:3, Insightful)
First, it's obvious the market has changed. We had the dot-com-to-bomb experience, economic slowdowns, etc. New technology is coming out, old ones fade - then suddenly hang on. I'm not sure what's going on, but it definitely doesn't seem like it did a few years ago.
However my feeling is companies have overreacted to the changes going on, thus making the changes in the economy and jobs far more painful and pronounced than need be. So we have a "blip" on top of actual changes.
That being said, I think our ultimate problem now is that in a shifting and changing world, with changing technologies, it's hard to know what is going on, and may well only get harder. Things will change faster. Trends will shift quicker. Overall patterns will be harder to determine.
Our methods of predicting and reacting to economic trends are far behind the speed of the world.
Just 2 cents tossed in the wishing well of the future . .
"protectionist policies like H1B quotas" (Score:5, Interesting)
The H1B program is not an example of anti-protectionism. Without any trade barriers at all, the employment situation in the US would be like that within the EU boundaries: a programmer from Portugal can get a job in Germany with the same rights as a German worker. Under H1B, an Indian programmer does not have the same rights as a US programmer; he is basically an indentured servant, who must accept any conditions his employer imposes or face immediate deportation.
The argument for H1B is the claim that there is a shortage of skilled technology workers in the US. At present, there is not a shortage, except in very limited cases. However, many companies prefer H1B workers to citizen or permanent resident workers, because they can drive them harder and pay them less, holding the threat of being sent back to India or China in reserve.
H1B visas... (Score:4, Interesting)
So it's a double-screwing, exporting tech jobs and importing tech workers.
I knew I should have took up nursing. The only sure-fire growth industry these days...
Sad Truth (Score:5, Informative)
That depends... (Score:5, Funny)
But back to this threads topic, I do think that it is a trend that will be difficult to break. The reason is saturation of programmers in America. Partially because during the IT boom, everyone and their mother went to get a programming degree, which left the US market saturated with programmers that were in it for the money, not because they loved it. I think that's the root cause of the US IT employment woes, just like in the early to mid 80's when everyone went the MBA's. And in about 10 years the same thing will happen, a new fad market will arise (legalized marijuana growth is my hope...) and the saturated market will subside. That's just my opinion...
high CMM level != good code (Score:4, Insightful)
All the CMM level means is that things are being done in a defined manner. Crappy code can be written in a defined, repeatable manner.
TODO: Workflow and Training (Score:4, Informative)
From my consulting experience (large and small companies), I've seen two areas that need major improvement: workflow and training.
They're actually strongly related. Many companies are just now basing a significant part of their business processes on technology. They've been gradually moving this way for some time, but it's at the point now where a tech catastrophy would seriously hurt them. However, they're still only taking advantage of perhaps 10 to 40% of what's technically feasible and also practical. There's still quite a lot of double entry of data and shuffling of papers.
So the workflow side should see a continued increase in technical development for years to come, and this will require services of "experts" of both the problem domain and technology solutions.
Training is the other area that should see continued and hopefully increased rate focus from businesses. Most users (and their bosses) approach computers and software as they approach a rental vehicle. They don't typically get much or any formal training, and they don't spend much time with books or manuals.
They're just scratching the surface of what much of their tools could do for them. Many people need broad and specific training to really make their technology work. An example of this is MS Exchange and Outlook. (I'm no fan of these, but I use them as example since they're ubiquitous.) Most business users can send and receive email, possibly with attachments. But most never touch their calendars, public folders, etc.
So maybe development is moving away, but there exists a big vacuum for other tech-related services, and those are going to stay right here in the US, if only because they often require personal contact.
New World (Score:4, Interesting)
Programming is a skill used by people to generate applications/programs that companies use, and that companies sell. It costs money to employ someone as a programmer to produce these programs. Up until this point, it did not make economic sense to hire people in places other than where you were selling the product. Usually because there were not enough skilled people available outside of the US and europe who could program.
Now there are many other places where people exist who know how to program and who will do it for less than people here in the US. The fact that the programmer is not geographically close to the company does not matter anymore with the advent of the internet. I think this trend will continue because it is so similar to how other industries were lost in the US.
The only two reasons a company in the US will hire someone in the US a) the company cannot get the product cheaper with an employee working in another country b) there are no workers with the necessary skills outside the US
Textiles, auto manufacturing, and steel mills were successful in the US until it became cheap enough to ship the products from another country to the US. This became reality when US companies could find cheaper labor overseas. The worker and the company no longer needed to be near each other, because the link between them (shipping, communication) was cheaper than hiring someone locally.
This same thing is happening with software. It is now affordable to hire someone who doesn't live near the company. And there is an abundant supply of skilled workers who will work for less than americans.
This scenario is not much different than what happened with US manufacturing jobs starting in the 1980s. I predict the IT world will have a similar outcome.
The New World Order (Score:3, Interesting)
Fundamental shift (Score:5, Interesting)
1: Copyright, patent, and tradmark laws are not uniformly followed in the various off-shore programming destinations. You'd be unlikely to see "Intellectual Property" (their term, not mine -- don't flame me) concious companys sending serious development work offshore for fear of it being hijacked.
2: Companies that have sent work offshore will have very mixed results -- just as they have had with American workers, but much worse. With American workers many 'failed implementations' could rightly be blamed on scope creep, slipping schedules, and unrealistic expectations. The offshore work will suffer all of these, but throw in a communication (language) barrier. This will eventually be worked through, but in the meantime a lot of companies will get burned by systems that don't work, detailed design specs that the foreign programmers don't understand, etc.
3: As companies in general move more towards open source and Free software, corporate programmer jobs will split into two broad categories: Things that no one wants to work on without pay and that are difficult to outsource (e.g.: business applications); And integrating various components to make a system that adds business value (some Free, some open source, some commercial, some built offshore).
I vote New World Order (Score:5, Insightful)
No longer will we be able to command an average pay $60,000-$80,000 a year with stock options (who would want them anyway), and the other perks programmers are accustomed to. Programmers are going to become like accountants, at best, in terms of their work environment, and probably salaries and other things as well.
Gone are the wonderful days when we held all the cards. Gone are the days when we got foosball tables and video games in the office.
I'm not bitter. Really, I'm not. I've been without steady work for over 6 months (though I do have several contracting things going on that are keeping me just barely afloat). It's a hard reality, but I think that is the reality. I had never expected it, but it's sinking in.
I've got a lot of experience. I've been programming for 24 years. I'm pretty damn good at it, if I do say so myself. I'm not a prodigy, but I've coded assembly for 3 CPUs, I've programmed in Algol, Cobol, Pascal (even wrote a Pascal compiler years ago), Perl, Modula-2, C, C++, and C# (these days). I've architected and written some really impressive stuff. I'm sure if I'd be willing to relocate to other locations, finding work would be a bit easier.
I've written a book in this field and about 20 articles. And I have trouble finding work. That's not a good sign.
I'm currently looking into other things that interest me a bit more than programming does these days, though. We'll see what pans out. There are some good opportunities for programmers down in Mexico too, and I like living there, so maybe I'll head back there. Who would think people would be going to Mexico for work?
The new reality? It's Half (Score:3, Insightful)
Guys making $100k? Try $50k. Making $60k? It's $30k. It's half.
Had a 2 BR apartment? Enjoy 1BR. Had a 1BR? It's studio time for you. It's half.
Had a BMW? Enjoy your Civic. Had a Civic? I've got a use Kia or a bus pass. It's half.
I don't like it anymore than you do, but I'm afraid it IS the new economic reality.
again? (Score:5, Interesting)
for some reason (ethnocentricity) i doubt that tech jobs will ever be significantly outsourced overseas. yes, gone may be the days of low-hanging fruit in the tech sector, and our growth rate certainly could not be sustained - but if you think it makes sense for the average small or even medium sized company to outsource, you're nuts.
not to mention integration and consultation are the two biggest gems yet to be mined for tech professionals. And they're entirely localized problems. You can't outsource the kind of tech that walks over to your user's desk to help them understand how to get the most from their system - the kind of tech that integrates -your- phone switch with -your- mail server, in -your- office to promote -your- core business practices.
and its not only cost management, it's risk management in a down economy. If you have $10m to invest in a project, and it's kinda risky - hiring local leaves you with full-time employees, employees whose loss -will- affect the morale of everyone else at the company, who -will- be drawing medical coverage, (who probably will get severence or at least holiday pay), and who -will- require infrastructure to support.
if you're not sure a new development is going to bring you new business - it makes sense to outsource. if it fails and you outsourced, you cut your losses and move on. that easy. and while you're outsourcing, what's the difference between the shop down the road and the shop down the pacific?
oh, and that slideshow by Hunt and Thomas was crap. basically it was: reinvest in yourself to keep your job, don't lock your dev experience to a particular vendor/language/industry (duh). but we can't all be 'recognized experts' or lecturers or project managers now can we? it's more a treatise on how the gray hairs can fend off the tide of young coders than how coders can defend themselves from being restructured or outsourced.
maturation of a market (Score:5, Insightful)
being a programmer in the future will be like being a writer.
writers are very talented, but they are a dime a dozen.
programmers and writers both operate on intellectual capital. and that, as far as economic rules of supply and demand are concerned, is very cheap.
what do you need to express your writing abilities? just pen and paper.
since these tools are cheap, writers are cheap.
previously, a decade or 2 ago, computer hardware was very expensive and rare, and so those who could manipulate it were very much in demand.
as computers become ubiquitous, those who manipulate them, like those who manipulate pen and paper to express their intellectual capital, will become equally just as cheap.
and so any one smart enough and interested enough can get in to a game. just like writing. equally devalued on the basis of supply and demand.
you want to make money in the future? become a plumber. become a nurse. supply and demand. these people demand more and more $ every day as less people in the west want to get into these fields.
look, IT work is a meritocracy. it amazes me that rich western geeks, who value and uphold the principle of how many mad skillz you got as the judge of your value in their technological world, in a perfect expression of pure meritocracy, should suddenly turn around and be so provincial when it comes to questions such as the globalization of IT.
c'mon, lose the hypocrisy. welcome to the real world. welcome to the globalization. no amount of sour grapes is going to change any of this process. give up your elitism and snobbery and realize that your skillsets are rapidly becoming a dime and dozen.
the golden age of super geek rarity is rapidly becoming a thing of a past. a smart teenager with some extra time on his or her hands can do exactly what you are doing right now. why do you suddenly think you deserve better monetary treatment than them? the economic value of your skillset is shrinking in the world as computers become more ubiquitous. get used to it. it's not going away.
It's not IT, it's IP. (Score:3, Insightful)
The problem goes back to the Reagan era policy of putting all the US's eggs in the service sector and then building up this straw man called intellectual property that is essentially hollow. It was never intended to be more than a scam like ponzi or a pyramid game which is what it has turned out to be.
Tighten up patent law back to where it was before the depression, make deregulation a mantra and the monopolies will grow like cockroaches in a backed up sewer.
Well, it worked. Now we're talking about deflation. Hmm, is this really so mysterious.
Your role explained (Score:5, Insightful)
Developed countries SELL!
Developed countries BUY!
Developing countries make.
There's many examples given by people like Noam Chomsky and Naomi Klein. From No Logo:
low tech sector wages are relative (Score:3, Insightful)
The tech sector fell into this trap in the 1990s.
The economic mumbo jumbo you hear and see everywhere in the US media is in stark contrast to reality. We have relaxed our environmental laws, beaten up on labor unions, sent jobs off shore to make consumer products cheaper, and still corporations are not satisfied. Why? Because constant growth in consumer spending is no longer possible.
The so called consumer is not getting wise to the Credit Card trap, essentially the cause of October 1929.
The engine of our economic growth has become the credit card, and the unrealistic expectations of the business world. The chickens are coming home to roost, first in the tech sector, then in all sectors if consumer credit continues to increase to unsustainable levels.
Raising interest rates will only precipitate the crash, so as the fed knows, it is caught in a terrible trap. The only solution perhaps is huge consumer credit default and mayhem.
Outsouce. Save $. Then complain about quality. (Score:3, Insightful)
I've been fortunate enough that even in the downturn and the current economy, I was only unemployed for 3 months. I feel for those who are out of work now because I know that there are many many excellent programmers who can't find anything.
The problem?
Let's face it, a lot of people went to programming without experience and talent durring the dot-com years when they could get 60K without a college degree and a little experience in visual basic.
Those people along with the legitimate programmers lost their jobs and now they are all mixed together out there in the hiring pool.
To make matters worse, there is a corporate reality now that one programmer is as good as any other (and in my experience, the people doing the hiring have no facilities to tell if an applicant is qualified), so they hire the cheap guy or the fancy talker our outsouce to another country. I know a lot of really excellent unemployed programmers that have been passed up for inexperienced and untalented programmers.
So they continue to hire the cheapest workers and outsource to countries with an abundance of low wage workers and then they complain about the quality of software these days. It's ironic, but they can't seem to get that stigma out of their eyes...
T
Just something you're going to have to get used to (Score:3, Funny)
Massive social uphevel
No job security
There is no solution.
We played the game as a society, and we lost.
Such is life.
Biting The IT Bullet (Score:3, Informative)
My wife who is a QA tester, had to work for a company that moved all there QA to India and it became increasingly more and more difficult for the developers who were Indian to work with the developers who were American. Aside from that, they didn't understand goals and expectations for the product and ended up giving them something much different that what was asked for.
I think tech support, customer support and other low-tech things like that can be moved but in the long run, if you are willing to commit to a presence in a foreign country, you are better off sticking stateside... or trying Canada. :)
unlimited appetite for GOOD programmers (Score:3, Insightful)
Elbonians (Score:3, Funny)
We have ourselves to blame (Score:5, Interesting)
So now we have programmers who are used to getting $80 per hour for highly skilled work demanding the same thing for work that your average self taught hacker can do. Of course it makes sense for business to farm it over seas to have it done at a fraction of the cost. It's pretty straight economics if you can remove your emotions from it.
It's here to stay (Score:5, Insightful)
Oh, there might be a few more cycles, but the trend is going to be inevitably downward -- and not just in IT.
Why? Because, simply, the status quo is an unmaintainable imbalance. The problem isn't greedy American corporations, the problem is greedy Americans, who think its Good and Right that our tiny country controls such a vast portion of the world's wealth. Whether it's Good and Right or Evil and Wrong, the fact is that a free market abhors this sort of imbalance, and absent draconian controls, the imbalance will be corrected. If an Indian can do the same job, and only needs to be paid a small apartment and a nice bicyle, where an American wants a huge house, two SUVs and annual vacations in Fiji, the Indian will get the job. And should!
I'm an American, and I very much enjoy my comfortable lifestyle, my nearly 4000 ft^2 house, my cars, my expensive hobbies, etc., but I've lived outside of the US and I have no illusions that the status quo can be maintained for long. There are too many people in the world who are just as deserving, just as smart and, frankly, probably willing to work harder. My comfort is as much an accident of my birth as anything I've done, and I don't think I have any God-given right to it.
Further, I think Americans need to realize that much of our current material wealth actually comes from the very places we complain are taking our jobs. Walk into nearly any store, look at the prices on the goods, then think about how much material and labor was required to make them. The stuff we buy is *amazingly* cheap; our own incomes are stretched to nearly ridiculous lengths by the abundance of cheap labor overseas. Quite simply, our lifestyle is all out of proportion to our productivity, and the market is going to correct that. IT is just one of the current victims/opportunities (depending on your point of view).
Protectionism, isolationism and schemes to keep ourselves on top by keeping everyone else down won't work forever, because they just don't make economic sense. We're going down, because that's the way it should be. All of the crying about evil corporations looking for a quick buck is just self pitying noise. The imbalance means that over the next few generations, we'll have to learn to cut back our lifestyles somewhat as people in other parts of the world improve theirs.
And if you spend a little time in the 3rd world, and see how many smart, hard-working, deserving people there are, you'll understand that that's a Good Thing, even if it's personally painful.
Re:It's here to stay (Score:4, Insightful)
Yes, but unfortunately, the largest expenses for an American are housing, transportation, and food, none of which an employed person can do without. In India, someone with only a bicycle can get a job, but in America, it's almost impossible to find good work without a car. The problem isn't that we lead extravagant lives, it's that we overpay for the basic necessities. The fact that someone is willing to pay $500,000 for a 4000 square foot house means that even well-paid programmers can't afford a house.
I have nothing against foreign workers who would like to have my standard of living. However, if I had the chance to say anything to them, it would be this: "Don't settle for anything less than $35 an hour - you'll being doing us both a favor." I know that they make $8/hour, and I wouldn't have any problem working for the same salary that they do, if my cost of living was the same as theirs. In Chicago, a family of 2 needs to gross about $70k a year just to make ends meet. It's not as if we're greedy, just that we want to be able to make a living doing what we love. Foreign workers are taking away the ability of American workers to support their family, and it has nothing to do with laziness, and everything to do with disparities in the cost of living between the US and other countries .
Re:It's here to stay (Score:5, Insightful)
The problem isn't that we lead extravagant lives, it's that we overpay for the basic necessities.
And where does that overpayment go? Housing isn't a good example, because a big part of the cost is the land, and the cost of land varies greatly based on how many people want to be in that particular area. The rest of a house, however, consists of materials and labor, and that cost is directly proportional to the scarcity of the materials used and the amount, and cost, of the labor employed. You can't say the labor is overpriced, because construction workers are not wealthy. If the materials are expensive, well, that was your choice.
The fact that someone is willing to pay $500,000 for a 4000 square foot house means that even well-paid programmers can't afford a house.
No, the problem is that people think they have to have such a large house. Go take a drive around your town and look at homes from different periods, starting back in, say, the early 1900s. What trends do you notice? What I see is that homes have consistently gotten larger and more complex.
Don't settle for anything less than $35 an hour - you'll being doing us both a favor.
Uh huh. And if their choice is $5 per hour or not working, they'll disagree completely that they're doing themselves a favor by demanding $35. And they won't care much about you.
It's not as if we're greedy, just that we want to be able to make a living doing what we love.
Two points: First, "make a living" means a very different thing to an American than it does to a person living in, say, rural Mexico. Things we take for granted they see as luxuries. Does your Chicago family just making ends meet with $70K have a television? Cable TV? Carpeted floors? Air conditioning? A stereo? A widely varied diet, including lots of foods imported great distances or grown expensively out of season? I'll grant that "greedy" is the wrong word, but basic expectations are vastly different. And the fact is that most Americans live better than your example (some by making more money, some by living in a cheaper place). Second, the notion that we *should* be able to make a living by "doing what we love" is also not a God-given right. If you want to make a living, you need to do something that *others* want to have done. If you're able to find something that you also enjoy, that's a bonus.
Foreign workers are taking away the ability of American workers to support their family, and it has nothing to do with laziness, and everything to do with disparities in the cost of living between the US and other countries .
Right, but follow the money trail and figure out where those disparities really come from and you'll understand what I'm saying.
Also, foreign workers are not taking away the ability of American workers to support their families; American workers can still do that, they just may have to work an extra job, or cut back on luxuries, or move to a cheaper locale, or even all of the above.
Outsourcing top management (Score:4, Insightful)
In some areas, the US doesn't have the technology any more. CD and DVD drives require licensed technology from Asian companies.
"I.T. Jobs" or "Tech Jobs"? (Score:5, Insightful)
I.T. is more a service industry while programming is a creation industry -- two very different beasts if you want to outsource to foreign workers.
When a guy in our California office has a problem creating a document in a database on our Notes server is he going to call/wait for an I.T. guy in the UK? No way.
When we need to make a programming change to our back-end server in California, do we care whether the guy making the change is in California, Nevada, or the U.K.? No, of course not.
There are two fundamentally different situations here -- the tech industry is simply going through a shift from a creation-oriented focus to a service-oriented focus. This is not very different from the change a lot of other industries have gone through, but it seems scary because it's now hitting our beloved tech industry.
The fact is I'm essentially a programmer with a computer science degree, and I have a good, solid, well-paying job in the I.T. sector where I'm programming only a small percentage of the time. I'm a director, so I hire I.T. people pretty often. The applicants I see are either I.T.-oriented, or they're programming-oriented.
The bottom line is that if you aren't able to adapt to a more service-oriented role in the U.S. tech industry, you will have more and more of a problem getting a job because you'll be competing for an ever-shrinking pool of jobs...
Re:Watch out for phonies (Score:5, Funny)
You must be referring to my MCSE...
Re:Watch out for phonies (Score:3, Interesting)
MOD PARENT DOWN - PLAGIARIZED! (Score:5, Informative)
Mmm... (Score:5, Insightful)
By the way, while I was over there, I met a guy from Siemens who was doing some manufacturing plant stuff in the area. He was complaining that they paid huge taxes on outgoing shipments, although most of that was refunded by the government a few months later. They were thinking of relocating their plant to Singapore or somewhere because of that.
It's quite obvious where this trend stops. Once we figure out how to outsource the entire command chain all the way up to the CEO, our shares of stock should be worth that much more because the company's cut their costs by a couple of orders of magnitude. I bet I could find a guy in Romania who'd be willing to be the company's CEO for one one-hundredth of what the current guy makes, with the same or better credentials. It's only a matter of time before shareholders realize this...
Re:The game is up - redux (Score:3, Insightful)
http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/5918 8 24.htm
"Foreign engineers will change our economic world; prepare yourself
By Sanford Forte
WE'RE hearing a lot these days about economic distress. What we're not hearing enough about are global economic and business changes that hit our manufacturing, technology and fin